Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Luna Galaxyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Luna Galaxy
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
Thiolicor · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Thiolicor · 9 games
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
713 picks · 613 bans
Disruptor
589 picks · 516 bans
Doom
491 picks · 940 bans
Beastmaster
490 picks · 1222 bans
Ember Spirit
434 picks · 1096 bans
Pangolier
426 picks · 880 bans
Mirana
412 picks · 219 bans
Enchantress
409 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Luna Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:36
Entity 70%Luna Galaxy 30%
The model gave 70% on Entity — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 43:41.
Game 2prediction missed14:25
Entity 70%Luna Galaxy 30%
The model gave 70% on Entity — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 27:02.
Game 3prediction missed43:15
Entity 70%Luna Galaxy 30%
The model gave 70% on Entity — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 41:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 70%
Series resultEntity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3