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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 14 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 9 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 7 games
29%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Malady · 6 games
33%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 16 games
44%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 16 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
77%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
so bad · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
715 picks · 611 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
590 picks · 515 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
490 picks · 937 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
489 picks · 1219 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
434 picks · 1097 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
424 picks · 879 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
411 picks · 219 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
407 picks · 583 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:37
Natus Vincere 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangoliermellojul
56% · 340 games52% · 74 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Slark
SlarkShigetsu
58% · 146 games48% · 256 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Visage
VisageMalik
53% · 138 games45% · 67 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Techies
Techiesxsvampire
48% · 167 games44% · 207 games
Enchantressso bad
Enchantress
Oracle
OracleMalady
51% · 91 game46% · 278 games
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed16:27
Natus Vincere 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerShigetsu
53% · 167 games47% · 71 game
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Pangolier
Pangoliermellojul
50% · 383 games52% · 248 games
BeastmasterCorrupted
Beastmaster
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMalik
50% · 43 games52% · 165 games
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
Storm Spirit
Techies
Techiesxsvampire
50% · 198 games47% · 197 games
Enchantressso bad
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaMalady
52% · 97 games47% · 207 games
SnapfireHellscream
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 56%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2