Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hydrawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Mirana
Gilgir · 21 game
Rubick
Gilgir · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
Gilgir · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 13 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Hydra
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 24 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 21 game
Tusksignature
Worick · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 16 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 14 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kami · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Lefitan · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
714 picks · 611 bans
Disruptor
590 picks · 514 bans
Doom
490 picks · 936 bans
Beastmaster
489 picks · 1218 bans
Ember Spirit
434 picks · 1097 bans
Pangolier
424 picks · 878 bans
Mirana
410 picks · 219 bans
Enchantress
407 picks · 582 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 37%
Hero pool strength60% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:32
One Move 50%Hydra 50%
The model gave 50% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 50:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMunkushi~
Void SpiritWorick
TidehunterAfterLife
Monkey KingKami
WindrangerAinkrad
MagnusCloud
TechiesPanto
MiranaLil
RubickGilgir
LichHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 52%
Series resultHydra 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1