Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hydrawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 16 games
Techies
Hellscream · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
so bad · 13 games
Hydra
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 24 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 21 game
Tusksignature
Worick · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 16 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 14 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kami · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Lefitan · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
714 picks · 610 bans
Disruptor
590 picks · 514 bans
Beastmaster
489 picks · 1218 bans
Doom
489 picks · 936 bans
Ember Spirit
434 picks · 1096 bans
Pangolier
423 picks · 878 bans
Mirana
409 picks · 219 bans
Enchantress
407 picks · 582 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:29
Nemiga Gaming 52%Hydra 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Hydra in 24:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingv1olent-
Arc WardenKami
MagnusCorrupted
DoomCloud
TinyMalr1ne
PangolierWorick
TechiesHellscream
MiranaLil
Undyingso bad
PugnaHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 55%
Series resultHydra 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1