Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
One Movewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 15 games
Techies
Hellscream · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
so bad · 13 games
One Move
Mirana
Gilgir · 21 game
Rubick
Gilgir · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
Gilgir · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 13 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
714 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
590 picks · 511 bans
Beastmaster
489 picks · 1213 bans
Doom
487 picks · 932 bans
Ember Spirit
433 picks · 1095 bans
Pangolier
421 picks · 875 bans
Mirana
409 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
404 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:30
Nemiga Gaming 52%One Move 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by One Move in 55:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladev1olent-
MorphlingMunkushi~
PuckMalr1ne
Queen of PainAinkrad
Dark SeerCorrupted
AxeAfterLife
Enchantressso bad
TechiesGilgir
BatriderHellscream
OraclePanto
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 56%
Series resultOne Move 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1