Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 21 game
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
Disruptor
Fantasy · 20 games
Rubick
BoBoKa · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
714 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
588 picks · 511 bans
Beastmaster
488 picks · 1211 bans
Doom
486 picks · 930 bans
Ember Spirit
433 picks · 1093 bans
Pangolier
421 picks · 874 bans
Mirana
409 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
404 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total71% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:32
Invictus Gaming 29%Team Aster 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:01:25.
Game 2prediction correct16:25
Invictus Gaming 29%Team Aster 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:58.
Game 3prediction correct23:30
Invictus Gaming 29%Team Aster 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 50:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 71%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3