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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Pugna
Pugnasignature
db- · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yowe · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Mirana
Jhocam · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Jhocam · 9 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Varizh · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
db- · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yowe · 7 games
57%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 607 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
587 picks · 509 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
487 picks · 1204 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
484 picks · 924 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
431 picks · 1090 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
417 picks · 873 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
408 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
402 picks · 578 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:27
Army Geniuses 39%Blacklist International 61%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 30:38.
Game 2prediction correct10:26
Army Geniuses 39%Blacklist International 61%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 46:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 61%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2