Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 13 games
Phoenix
RedPanda · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 7 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
Marcioften banned
生死 · 7 games
Rubick
TK · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
TK · 7 games
Team Bright
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Void Spirit
phoenix · 7 games
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 4 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
712 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
586 picks · 509 bans
Beastmaster
487 picks · 1202 bans
Doom
484 picks · 922 bans
Ember Spirit
431 picks · 1088 bans
Pangolier
416 picks · 872 bans
Mirana
408 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
402 picks · 578 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Team Bright
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:19
Aster.Aries 46%Team Bright 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidUlu
Puckphoenix
Underlord生死
VenomancerIrving
Void SpiritXwy
DisruptorUndyne_
TechiesTK
Shadow DemonRedPanda
Game 2prediction missed30:34
Aster.Aries 47%Team Bright 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 45:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingUlu
Pangolierphoenix
Void SpiritXwy
MagnusIrving
Primal Beast生死
Shadow DemonUndyne_
TechiesTK
Bounty HunterRedPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 57%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2