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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 21 game
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Chris Luck · 20 games
60%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
710 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 508 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
485 picks · 1201 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
483 picks · 919 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
430 picks · 1085 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
416 picks · 871 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
407 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
400 picks · 577 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total75% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:23
beastcoast 25%Evil Geniuses 75%
The model gave 75% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 34:36.
Game 2prediction correct55:39
beastcoast 25%Evil Geniuses 75%
The model gave 75% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 46:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 75%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2