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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Balrogsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mad Kings

Rubick
Rubick
Gardick · 22 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Gardick · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 19 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Elmisho · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 15 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 14 games
21%

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubick
Demon · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 11 games
73%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
ShakaLord · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 9 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ShakaLord · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 507 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
485 picks · 1199 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
483 picks · 916 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
431 picks · 1086 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
416 picks · 873 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
407 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
400 picks · 577 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Balrogs
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total62% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:37
Mad Kings 55%Balrogs 45%
The model gave 55% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 54:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDaaD-
49% · 124 games54% · 122 games
BatriderAlone
Batrider
Invoker
InvokerPiPi
44% · 45 games61% · 58 games
SlarkDM
Slark
Omniknight
OmniknightArzenT
45% · 54 games50% · 38 games
Spirit BreakerDemon
Spirit Breaker
Clinkz
ClinkzGenek
51% · 15 games42% · 20 games
OracleShakaLord
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed11:32
Mad Kings 57%Balrogs 43%
The model gave 57% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Balrogs in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDaaD-
49% · 139 games47% · 129 games
TimbersawAlone
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerArzenT
52% · 50 games51% · 109 games
UrsaDM
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritPiPi
48% · 115 games50% · 254 games
ClockwerkDemon
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskGenek
50% · 284 games54% · 96 games
LichShakaLord
Lich
Game 3prediction correct17:7
Mad Kings 52%Balrogs 48%
The model gave 52% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 25:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonDaaD-
38% · 19 games40% · 11 games
Wraith KingDM
Wraith King
Magnus
MagnusArzenT
46% · 61 game50% · 32 games
Shadow FiendAlone
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
WindrangerPiPi
41% · 44 games54% · 70 games
ClockwerkDemon
Clockwerk
Pugna
PugnaGenek
57% · 44 games60% · 55 games
LichShakaLord
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 62%
Series resultMad Kings 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3