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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techies
Antares · 46 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 37 games
46%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 22 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 20 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 20 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
65%

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sayuw · 20 games
45%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 18 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 17 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 15 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
713 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 507 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
484 picks · 1196 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
481 picks · 911 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
429 picks · 1086 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
415 picks · 871 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
406 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
400 picks · 575 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
9Pandas 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRAMZES666
47% · 122 games53% · 194 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
57% · 172 games54% · 180 games
SlarkKiritych
Slark
Timbersaw
TimbersawMieRo
49% · 107 games46% · 138 games
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderAntares
50% · 188 games48% · 198 games
Skywrath Magesayuw
Skywrath Mage
Undying
UndyingSolo
47% · 209 games48% · 88 games
LichFng
Lich
Game 2prediction missed12:36
9Pandas 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRAMZES666
53% · 143 games55% · 239 games
Monkey KingKiritych
Monkey King
Doom
DoomMieRo
51% · 317 games45% · 345 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
49% · 376 games44% · 74 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
48% · 166 games49% · 194 games
Techiessayuw
Techies
Lich
LichSolo
48% · 125 games56% · 275 games
DisruptorFng
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct34:40
9Pandas 56%Virtus.pro 44%
The model gave 56% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
47% · 180 games50% · 305 games
Monkey KingKiritych
Monkey King
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
56% · 465 games49% · 404 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomMieRo
52% · 261 game43% · 159 games
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
51% · 148 games47% · 242 games
Batridersayuw
Batrider
Lich
LichSolo
55% · 92 games55% · 36 games
Ancient ApparitionFng
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 55%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3