Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Mirana
Gilgir · 21 game
Rubick
Gilgir · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
Gilgir · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 13 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 10 games
Iosignature
Husky · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
713 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
582 picks · 506 bans
Beastmaster
484 picks · 1194 bans
Doom
481 picks · 906 bans
Ember Spirit
429 picks · 1086 bans
Pangolier
413 picks · 872 bans
Mirana
406 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
398 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:14
One Move 36%nouns 64%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by One Move in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkMunkushi~
TerrorbladeYamSun
Void SpiritAinkrad
BatriderMoo
BloodseekerAfterLife
Storm SpiritGunnar
SilencerGilgir
PugnaLelis
DisruptorPanto
VenomancerHusky
Game 2prediction missed32:10
One Move 35%nouns 65%
The model gave 65% on nouns — the game was taken by One Move in 28:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusAinkrad
TimbersawGunnar
Void SpiritMunkushi~
Monkey KingYamSun
Death ProphetAfterLife
Dark SeerMoo
PugnaGilgir
TechiesHusky
OraclePanto
Spirit BreakerLelis
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 73%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2