Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
Lucky Bird
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Yadomi · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
blessed kid · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Satoshi- · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
blessed kid · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
712 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
582 picks · 505 bans
Beastmaster
482 picks · 1187 bans
Doom
480 picks · 900 bans
Ember Spirit
426 picks · 1083 bans
Pangolier
412 picks · 869 bans
Mirana
405 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
397 picks · 573 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength60% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total85% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:4
nouns 74%Lucky Bird 26%
The model gave 74% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 22:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderMoo
Troll Warlordblessed kid
Monkey KingYamSun
UnderlordSatoshi-
OmniknightGunnar
TechiesLelis
IoHusky
Game 2prediction correct38:8
nouns 71%Lucky Bird 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusGunnar
Slarkblessed kid
EnigmaMoo
Primal BeastSatoshi-
Void SpiritYamSun
BatriderLelis
MiranaHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 85%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2