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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiessignature
Antares · 43 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
47%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 22 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 20 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
65%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 49 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 21 game
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
709 picks · 608 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 504 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
482 picks · 1181 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
480 picks · 892 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1084 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
409 picks · 869 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
403 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
400 picks · 571 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:11
9Pandas 41%Team Spirit 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerRAMZES666
42% · 81 game51% · 204 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
56% · 370 games50% · 224 games
BatriderLarl
Batrider
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
51% · 377 games47% · 57 games
Earth SpiritCollapse
Earth Spirit
Techies
TechiesAntares
57% · 191 game41% · 447 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSolo
63% · 35 games47% · 122 games
LichMiposhka
Lich
Game 2prediction correct12:31
9Pandas 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
41% · 105 games56% · 60 games
JuggernautYatoro
Juggernaut
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRAMZES666
43% · 197 games54% · 131 game
BatriderCollapse
Batrider
Magnus
MagnusMieRo
43% · 137 games51% · 211 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesAntares
55% · 222 games43% · 220 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSolo
68% · 43 games55% · 82 games
LichMiposhka
Lich
Game 3prediction correct16:41
9Pandas 41%Team Spirit 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
54% · 172 games54% · 284 games
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRAMZES666
50% · 114 games52% · 206 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaMieRo
51% · 95 games48% · 134 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Techies
TechiesAntares
55% · 161 game51% · 117 games
PugnaMira
Pugna
Rubick
RubickSolo
41% · 300 games43% · 101 game
LichMiposhka
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3