Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Luna Galaxywin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTrouble Makers Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Luna Galaxy
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
Thiolicor · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Thiolicor · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Davai · 8 games
Trouble Makers Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
709 picks · 608 bans
Disruptor
583 picks · 504 bans
Beastmaster
482 picks · 1181 bans
Doom
480 picks · 892 bans
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1084 bans
Pangolier
409 picks · 869 bans
Mirana
403 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
400 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Luna Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Luna Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Luna Galaxy 74%Trouble Makers Reborn 26%
The model gave 74% on Luna Galaxy — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy.
Game 2prediction correct
Luna Galaxy 74%Trouble Makers Reborn 26%
The model gave 74% on Luna Galaxy — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLuna Galaxy · 74%
Series resultLuna Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2