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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sayuw · 20 games
45%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 16 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 15 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 14 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 18 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
77%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 13 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
so bad · 13 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
42%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
707 picks · 608 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 503 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
480 picks · 1179 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
477 picks · 886 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1082 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
407 picks · 869 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
401 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
397 picks · 571 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:40
Virtus.pro 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKiritych
48% · 73 games48% · 64 games
Medusav1olent-
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
53% · 143 games47% · 69 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
56% · 69 games48% · 34 games
Dark SeerCorrupted
Dark Seer
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
57% · 76 games50% · 185 games
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFng
43% · 85 games49% · 94 games
Disruptorso bad
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct38:24
Virtus.pro 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 47:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerKiritych
52% · 127 games57% · 94 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
41% · 153 games52% · 131 game
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
Storm Spirit
Axe
AxeNoticed
42% · 26 games49% · 183 games
BeastmasterCorrupted
Beastmaster
Techies
TechiesFng
55% · 172 games48% · 147 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesayuw
51% · 145 games48% · 68 games
Lichso bad
Lich
Game 3prediction correct22:3
Virtus.pro 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
53% · 231 game50% · 240 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
54% · 568 games52% · 340 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Windranger
WindrangerSquad1x
46% · 102 games51% · 328 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesFng
53% · 257 games47% · 317 games
Enchantressso bad
Enchantress
Mirana
Miranasayuw
50% · 575 games43% · 508 games
RubickHellscream
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 61%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3