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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 18 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 17 games
94%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 12 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
67%

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Mirana
Dy · 19 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 15 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
706 picks · 608 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 503 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
480 picks · 1176 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
477 picks · 883 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1081 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
407 picks · 866 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
400 picks · 218 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
397 picks · 571 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total71% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
LGD Gaming 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
54% · 139 games50% · 98 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Windranger
WindrangerNothingToSay
42% · 77 games58% · 88 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
55% · 176 games42% · 100 games
MagnusJT-
Magnus
Techies
TechiespLAnet
53% · 221 game43% · 262 games
RubickKaka
Rubick
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctory`
64% · 35 games46% · 100 games
SilencerDy
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed15:29
LGD Gaming 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
46% · 169 games49% · 118 games
TerrorbladeGhost
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
48% · 157 games44% · 103 games
TimbersawJT-
Timbersaw
Axe
Axeniu
50% · 29 games58% · 113 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Techies
TechiespLAnet
56% · 159 games50% · 145 games
BatriderKaka
Batrider
Oracle
Oracley`
49% · 85 games50% · 120 games
MiranaDy
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed18:32
LGD Gaming 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 54:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenshiro
50% · 54 games52% · 88 games
AlchemistGhost
Alchemist
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
47% · 118 games48% · 86 games
Void SpiritPaparazi
Void Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
50% · 181 game47% · 113 games
BatriderJT-
Batrider
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderniu
46% · 59 games47% · 46 games
Winter WyvernKaka
Winter Wyvern
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitiony`
54% · 23 games60% · 102 games
TechiesDy
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 71%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3