Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs predictionEex-Monaspawin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
kefteme.mp3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
kefteme.mp3
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
706 picks · 608 bans
Disruptor
579 picks · 503 bans
Beastmaster
479 picks · 1175 bans
Doom
476 picks · 882 bans
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1079 bans
Pangolier
407 picks · 865 bans
Mirana
399 picks · 217 bans
Enchantress
397 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 79%
Hero pool strength50% ex-Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% kefteme.mp3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:34
ex-Monaspa 33%kefteme.mp3 67%
The model gave 67% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by kefteme.mp3 in 58:55.
Game 2prediction correct19:33
ex-Monaspa 33%kefteme.mp3 67%
The model gave 67% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by kefteme.mp3 in 34:39.
Model check result
Model favoritekefteme.mp3 · 67%
Series resultex-Monaspa 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2