Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Phoenix
RedPanda · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 7 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
Rubick
TK · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
TK · 7 games
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
Team Bright
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
Void Spirit
phoenix · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 4 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
706 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
577 picks · 503 bans
Beastmaster
478 picks · 1171 bans
Doom
475 picks · 881 bans
Ember Spirit
426 picks · 1075 bans
Pangolier
406 picks · 862 bans
Mirana
399 picks · 217 bans
Enchantress
396 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 57%
Hero pool strength61% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:11
Aster.Aries 40%Team Bright 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciUlu
DoomIrving
Void SpiritXwy
Pangolierphoenix
Pudge生死
Winter WyvernUndyne_
Shadow DemonTK
BaneRedPanda
Game 2prediction missed38:21
Aster.Aries 42%Team Bright 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 49:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeUlu
Void Spiritphoenix
Ember SpiritXwy
Spirit BreakerIrving
Legion Commander生死
DisruptorUndyne_
TechiesTK
Shadow DemonRedPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 64%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2