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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
74%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fly · 17 games
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
73%

nouns

Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 11 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 9 games
89%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lelis · 8 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
YamSun · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
705 picks · 607 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
577 picks · 503 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
478 picks · 1169 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
474 picks · 880 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
426 picks · 1074 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
405 picks · 862 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
399 picks · 216 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
396 picks · 571 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total78% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:21
Shopify Rebellion 65%nouns 35%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 1:01:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
51% · 288 games57% · 103 games
MedusaYamSun
Medusa
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerArteezy
50% · 130 games57% · 182 games
TimbersawGunnar
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
54% · 78 games47% · 283 games
Primal BeastMoo
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
44% · 442 games48% · 182 games
Keeper of the LightLelis
Keeper of the Light
Lich
LichFly
47% · 101 game47% · 289 games
Crystal MaidenHusky
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct28:12
Shopify Rebellion 64%nouns 36%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerArteezy
44% · 49 games48% · 106 games
TimbersawGunnar
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomSabeRLight-
53% · 139 games57% · 81 game
SlarkYamSun
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
51% · 57 games45% · 52 games
Spirit BreakerMoo
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFly
55% · 26 games41% · 18 games
ClinkzLelis
Clinkz
Io
IoCr1t-
47% · 33 games53% · 47 games
VenomancerHusky
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 78%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2