?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
solji · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 10 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
89%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
solji · 8 games
50%

Lucky Bird

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 6 games
17%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Yadomi · 6 games
17%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Satoshi- · 5 games
40%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
blessed kid · 5 games
20%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
blessed kid · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
705 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
577 picks · 503 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
478 picks · 1167 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
472 picks · 880 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
426 picks · 1072 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
405 picks · 862 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
399 picks · 216 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
396 picks · 571 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:7
Felt 56%Lucky Bird 44%
The model gave 56% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 24:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomFayde
59% · 56 games46% · 58 games
Juggernautblessed kid
Juggernaut
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeBerna
48% · 48 games40% · 123 games
MagnusSatoshi-
Magnus
Techies
Techiessolji
58% · 55 games
Lich
Lichalbinozebra
70% · 22 games
Game 2prediction correct45:8
Felt 54%Lucky Bird 46%
The model gave 54% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 31:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderFayde
43% · 69 games49% · 91 game
Ursablessed kid
Ursa
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightBerna
43% · 57 games54% · 181 game
DoomSatoshi-
Doom
Techies
Techiessolji
54% · 63 games
Silencer
Silenceralbinozebra
53% · 83 games
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 57%
Series resultFelt 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2