?
arrow_backBack to match
Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 20 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 16 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 15 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 13 games
46%

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 18 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 12 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
710 picks · 607 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
574 picks · 505 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
476 picks · 1165 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
471 picks · 876 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
425 picks · 1071 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
407 picks · 861 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
397 picks · 216 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
396 picks · 572 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:29
Virtus.pro 69%MoneyMakers 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 48:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerKiritych
47% · 132 games48% · 61 game
SniperEgor
Sniper
Doom
DoomNoticed
47% · 265 games53% · 143 games
Templar AssassinLukas
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
49% · 85 games49% · 342 games
BeastmasterBb3px
Beastmaster
Enchantress
Enchantresssayuw
54% · 256 games48% · 102 games
WindrangerBignum
Windranger
Techies
TechiesFng
52% · 150 games52% · 240 games
DisruptorCeMaTheSlayeR
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct27:7
Virtus.pro 68%MoneyMakers 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 18:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
52% · 127 games53% · 155 games
TimbersawEgor
Timbersaw
Monkey King
Monkey KingKiritych
54% · 158 games47% · 128 games
MagnusBb3px
Magnus
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNoticed
39% · 81 game56% · 113 games
Faceless VoidLukas
Faceless Void
Mirana
Miranasayuw
54% · 256 games46% · 102 games
PugnaBignum
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerFng
48% · 145 games50% · 269 games
DisruptorCeMaTheSlayeR
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 83%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2