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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
82%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
60%

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 23 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 22 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 14 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
709 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
573 picks · 503 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
473 picks · 1161 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
469 picks · 870 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
422 picks · 1070 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
404 picks · 860 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
396 picks · 216 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
394 picks · 570 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:21
Talon Esports 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
56% · 54 games53% · 96 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
56% · 124 games49% · 237 games
PangolierBob
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJabz
46% · 49 games46% · 79 games
UnderlordTino-
Underlord
Techies
TechiesQ
48% · 103 games48% · 43 games
Shadow DemonShanks
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerOli
49% · 125 games
Game 2prediction correct43:12
Talon Esports 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 52:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
48% · 171 game52% · 84 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Windranger
WindrangerMikoto
35% · 73 games58% · 222 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Slark
Slark23savage
58% · 107 games47% · 124 games
Void SpiritBob
Void Spirit
Techies
TechiesQ
51% · 151 game48% · 170 games
EnchantressShanks
Enchantress
Lich
LichOli
50% · 98 games
Game 3prediction missed31:23
Talon Esports 55%Execration 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 38:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spirit23savage
49% · 148 games49% · 121 game
BloodseekerPalos
Bloodseeker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
53% · 212 games54% · 204 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusJabz
51% · 121 game47% · 258 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerQ
50% · 68 games46% · 161 game
EnchantressShanks
Enchantress
Silencer
SilencerOli
51% · 195 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 60%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3