Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 20 games
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 18 games
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
Techies
Hellscream · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 13 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
so bad · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 11 games
Ram Squad
Spirit Breakersignature
Flash · 7 games
Clinkzoften banned
w33 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
ArisE · 2 games
Doomoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
kAAN · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
709 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
573 picks · 503 bans
Beastmaster
473 picks · 1161 bans
Doom
469 picks · 870 bans
Ember Spirit
422 picks · 1070 bans
Pangolier
404 picks · 860 bans
Mirana
396 picks · 216 bans
Enchantress
394 picks · 570 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Ram Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:20
Nemiga Gaming 67%Ram Squad 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomCorrupted
Chaos KnightkAAN
Juggernautv1olent-
MagnusBliNcc
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Ember SpiritcanceL^^
BatriderHellscream
Rubickw33
Silencerso bad
OracleFlash
Game 2prediction correct39:23
Nemiga Gaming 66%Ram Squad 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusCorrupted
MorphlingkAAN
PangolierMalr1ne
Spirit BreakerBliNcc
Void Spiritv1olent-
PuckcanceL^^
Disruptorso bad
Pugnaw33
Skywrath MageHellscream
VenomancerFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 79%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2