Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Miranasignature
Nuages · 27 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nuages · 18 games
Rubick
Jupiter · 11 games
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hyko · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
mini-` · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hyko · 7 games
Infinity Esports
Rubick
Kiri · 19 games
Snapfire
Kiri · 15 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 13 games
Doomoften banned
Frank · 11 games
Tusk
Kiri · 11 games
Tiny
Kiri · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
707 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
572 picks · 502 bans
Beastmaster
473 picks · 1156 bans
Doom
467 picks · 864 bans
Ember Spirit
422 picks · 1070 bans
Pangolier
403 picks · 860 bans
Enchantress
396 picks · 569 bans
Mirana
395 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 35%
Hero pool strength56% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total51% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:4
Infamous 49%Infinity Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infamous in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertamini-`
TidehunterFrank
Void Spirit4dr
Storm SpiritLeostyle
MagnusHyko
Keeper of the LightKiri
Crystal MaidenJupiter
DisruptorPrada
Treant ProtectorNuages
Game 2prediction missed21:30
Infamous 52%Infinity Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 51:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingmini-`
Queen of PainLeostyle
Storm Spirit4dr
MagnusFrank
Legion CommanderHyko
RubickKiri
Treant ProtectorNuages
Crystal MaidenPrada
Skywrath MageJupiter
Game 3prediction missed20:26
Infamous 51%Infinity Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain4dr
UnderlordFrank
Bloodseekermini-`
Legion CommanderLeostyle
Spirit BreakerHyko
BatriderKiri
RubickJupiter
Skywrath MagePrada
Treant ProtectorNuages
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 51%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3