Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachloss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Rubick
Immersion · 15 games
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
Disruptor
Lelis · 8 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
YamSun · 8 games
Iosignature
Husky · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
707 picks · 602 bans
Disruptor
570 picks · 499 bans
Beastmaster
472 picks · 1148 bans
Doom
466 picks · 852 bans
Ember Spirit
421 picks · 1063 bans
Pangolier
399 picks · 857 bans
Enchantress
396 picks · 563 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
Into The Breach 36%nouns 64%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNande
MorphlingYamSun
PangolierSupream^
BloodseekerGunnar
Legion CommanderXibbe
Spirit BreakerMoo
Bounty HunterRESPECT
ClinkzLelis
51% · 90 games
Skywrath MageHusky
Game 2prediction correct13:39
Into The Breach 37%nouns 63%
The model gave 63% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNande
WindrangerYamSun
Void SpiritSupream^
PangolierGunnar
MagnusXibbe
Spirit BreakerMoo
EnchantressRESPECT
ClinkzLelis
42% · 53 games
VenomancerHusky
Game 3prediction correct16:41
Into The Breach 36%nouns 64%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerSupream^
SvenYamSun
Dark SeerXibbe
TimbersawGunnar
Monkey KingNande
Primal BeastMoo
DisruptorRESPECT
Crystal MaidenHusky
51% · 86 games
Keeper of the LightLelis
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 73%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3