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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
9%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 8 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Lodine · 7 games
29%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Dendi · 6 games
0%

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 18 games
72%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Speeed · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 10 games
80%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 9 games
89%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 9 games
44%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
708 picks · 604 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
570 picks · 498 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
468 picks · 1150 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
466 picks · 847 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
419 picks · 1064 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
399 picks · 857 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
396 picks · 564 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 215 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 48%
Hero pool strength67% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:29
B8 Esports 35%Team DogChamp 65%
The model gave 65% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDendi
46% · 116 games47% · 161 game
Void Spiritred2
Void Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingStoneBank
55% · 124 games45% · 164 games
Bloodseekerdnm
Bloodseeker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
51% · 128 games52% · 93 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Batrider
BatriderCTOMAHEH1
52% · 118 games48% · 59 games
Bounty HunterMoOz
Bounty Hunter
Silencer
SilencerLodine
49% · 63 games55% · 72 games
OracleBloody Nine
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct12:34
B8 Esports 34%Team DogChamp 66%
The model gave 66% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinDendi
59% · 70 games50% · 105 games
Magnusdnm
Magnus
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerStoneBank
52% · 95 games43% · 128 games
Void Spiritred2
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFunn1k
43% · 42 games60% · 74 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Batrider
BatriderCTOMAHEH1
50% · 118 games51% · 180 games
TechiesMoOz
Techies
Rubick
RubickLodine
46% · 228 games48% · 66 games
LichBloody Nine
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 75%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2