DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ALIS VENTORUSloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 11 games
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 8 games
Jakiro
Accel · 8 games
Tiny
payk · 5 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Omniknightoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
payk · 3 games
ALIS VENTORUS
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 5 games
Luna
paw · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Delight · 4 games
Tusk
waveformn · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Delight · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
608 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
532 picks · 408 bans
Phoenix
477 picks · 531 bans
Tusk
468 picks · 411 bans
Hoodwink
467 picks · 237 bans
Warlock
395 picks · 244 bans
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1017 bans
Puck
385 picks · 910 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:43
Estar Backs 50%ALIS VENTORUS 50%
The model gave 50% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 54:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladepayk
PangolierNorma
BatriderVitaly
Ember SpiritPanda
ClockwerkYadomi
Iowaveformn
50% · 193 games
HoodwinkDelight
Game 2prediction correct49:33
Estar Backs 54%ALIS VENTORUS 46%
The model gave 54% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 38:39.
Game 3prediction missed34:12
Estar Backs 50%ALIS VENTORUS 50%
The model gave 50% on ALIS VENTORUS — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistpayk
DawnbreakerNorma
UndyingVitaly
SlardarPanda
RingmasterYadomi
Hoodwinkwaveformn
58% · 102 games
PhoenixDelight
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 54%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3