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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Triseumloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
StoRmwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Triseum

Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Ark · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ark · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Ark · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ark · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ark · 1 game
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Aoharide · 1 game
100%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Ark · 1 game
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Aoharide · 1 game
100%

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RodjER · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 8 games
13%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
697 picks · 599 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
570 picks · 495 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
463 picks · 1137 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
463 picks · 844 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
413 picks · 1057 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
392 picks · 554 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 847 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
390 picks · 215 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Triseum
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:42
Triseum 46%StoRm 54%
The model gave 54% on StoRm — the game was taken by Triseum in 56:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerArk
38% · 89 games58% · 50 games
Alchemistkrylat
Alchemist
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAoharide
48% · 249 games56% · 125 games
Pangoliernicky`cool
Pangolier
45% · 107 games
Doomemptiness
Doom
64% · 50 games
TechiesOneJey
Techies
80% · 6 games
OracleSoNNeikO
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct9:17
Triseum 46%StoRm 54%
The model gave 54% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 23:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonArk
42% · 58 games56% · 31 game
Terrorbladekrylat
Terrorblade
Pugna
PugnaAoharide
53% · 83 games50% · 24 games
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Storm Spirit
60% · 50 games
Beastmasteremptiness
Beastmaster
50% · 24 games
Skywrath MageOneJey
Skywrath Mage
35% · 12 games
VenomancerSoNNeikO
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct14:26
Triseum 46%StoRm 54%
The model gave 54% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 24:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusArk
42% · 93 games63% · 56 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAoharide
45% · 203 games40% · 25 games
Chaos Knightkrylat
Chaos Knight
60% · 108 games
Beastmasteremptiness
Beastmaster
60% · 59 games
Skywrath MageOneJey
Skywrath Mage
54% · 48 games
LichSoNNeikO
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 56%
Series resultStoRm 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3