Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ram Squadwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Ram Squad
Spirit Breaker
BliNcc · 5 games
Clinkzoften banned
w33 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
ArisE · 2 games
Doomoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
kAAN · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
697 picks · 599 bans
Disruptor
570 picks · 495 bans
Beastmaster
463 picks · 1133 bans
Doom
463 picks · 842 bans
Ember Spirit
413 picks · 1057 bans
Enchantress
392 picks · 552 bans
Mirana
390 picks · 215 bans
Pangolier
390 picks · 846 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Ram Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:33
Alliance 84%Ram Squad 16%
The model gave 84% on Alliance — the game was taken by Ram Squad in 31:59.
Game 2prediction missed28:38
Alliance 84%Ram Squad 16%
The model gave 84% on Alliance — the game was taken by Ram Squad in 36:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 84%
Series resultRam Squad 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2