Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
cybercatswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Bloodseekeroften banned
Daxak · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
OwnedMe · 3 games
Techies
swedenstrong · 3 games
Underlordoften banned
OwnedMe · 3 games
Venomanceroften banned
MiLAN · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
Mirana
MiLAN · 2 games
cybercats
Rubick
jesv · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 12 games
Disruptor
forcemajor · 11 games
Mirana
forcemajor · 11 games
Lycanoften banned
zenica · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
forcemajor · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
697 picks · 598 bans
Disruptor
570 picks · 495 bans
Beastmaster
463 picks · 1129 bans
Doom
460 picks · 838 bans
Ember Spirit
412 picks · 1055 bans
Pangolier
390 picks · 845 bans
Enchantress
389 picks · 554 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 212 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:20
Level UP 59%cybercats 41%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by cybercats in 1:03:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeDaxak
LifestealerDarkLord^
Ember SpiritLorenof
Void Spirityoung G
EnchantressMiLAN
Techiesforcemajor
Primal BeastOwnedMe
MagnusDkFogas
Pugnaswedenstrong
SilencerDukalis
Game 2prediction correct36:25
Level UP 59%cybercats 41%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:22:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainLorenof
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
UrsaDaxak
Puckyoung G
UnderlordOwnedMe
BloodseekerDkFogas
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
TechiesDukalis
Shadow DemonMiLAN
Batriderforcemajor
Game 3prediction missed9:24
Level UP 60%cybercats 40%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by cybercats in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaLorenof
MedusaDarkLord^
DoomOwnedMe
Void Spirityoung G
UrsaDaxak
UnderlordDkFogas
Clinkzswedenstrong
Batriderforcemajor
EnchantressMiLAN
UndyingDukalis
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 66%
Series resultcybercats 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3