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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 14 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 12 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Michael · 10 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Kiri · 19 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Kiri · 15 games
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
Kiri · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Genek · 10 games
30%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 597 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 491 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
461 picks · 1122 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
454 picks · 835 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 1053 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
389 picks · 548 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 844 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
385 picks · 210 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total73% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:6
Thunder Awaken 66%Infinity Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 24:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
58% · 102 games48% · 86 games
Templar AssassinAdrx
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterILICH-
53% · 419 games47% · 222 games
DoomFrank
Doom
Disruptor
DisruptorMjz
54% · 369 games46% · 122 games
BatriderLeostyle
Batrider
37% · 228 games
UndyingPrada
Undying
48% · 232 games
TuskKiri
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct33:15
Thunder Awaken 60%Infinity Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
47% · 110 games49% · 125 games
DoomFrank
Doom
Windranger
WindrangerILICH-
45% · 82 games49% · 70 games
BloodseekerAdrx
Bloodseeker
Disruptor
DisruptorMjz
53% · 230 games56% · 150 games
PangolierLeostyle
Pangolier
56% · 29 games
VenomancerPrada
Venomancer
50% · 48 games
Skywrath MageKiri
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 73%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2