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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 25 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 23 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 22 games
32%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
W1sh- · 14 games
71%

SIBE Team

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 4 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 4 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
nesfeer · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
klassnokruto · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
erase · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
698 picks · 598 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
563 picks · 493 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
461 picks · 1120 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
453 picks · 831 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 1050 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 840 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
386 picks · 550 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
385 picks · 210 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:14
KZ TEAM 56%SIBE Team 44%
The model gave 56% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritG.T.I
52% · 27 games47% · 65 games
LichArti_Shock
Lich
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMr. Luck
71% · 3 games
Disruptor
DisruptorNikolica
51% · 35 games
Game 2prediction correct34:26
KZ TEAM 57%SIBE Team 43%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireG.T.I
49% · 148 games52% · 238 games
UndyingArti_Shock
Undying
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMr. Luck
48% · 25 games
Silencer
SilencerNikolica
48% · 65 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 59%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2