Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction44u4uwarawin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4u4uwara
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Treant Protectorsignature
SOhY · 10 games
Tusk
toshiyb · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 9 games
Techies
weebian · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
Mirana
SOhY · 8 games
Rubick
Heaven · 8 games
Tiny
toshiyb · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
696 picks · 597 bans
Disruptor
562 picks · 493 bans
Beastmaster
461 picks · 1116 bans
Doom
451 picks · 827 bans
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 1047 bans
Pangolier
387 picks · 837 bans
Enchantress
385 picks · 550 bans
Mirana
385 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% 4u4uwara
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:5
4u4uwara 42%HF 58%
The model gave 58% on HF — the game was taken by 4u4uwara in 24:09.
Game 2prediction missed32:12
4u4uwara 42%HF 58%
The model gave 58% on HF — the game was taken by 4u4uwara in 18:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 58%
Series result4u4uwara 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2