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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 26 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 23 games
52%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 22 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 19 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 18 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 44 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
58%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 33 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 556 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 407 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
474 picks · 532 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
465 picks · 237 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
464 picks · 413 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1022 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 909 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total63% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:40
Power Rangers 42%HULIGANI 58%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkTA2000
60% · 66 games64% · 42 games
Lone Druidssnovv1
Lone Druid
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
47% · 418 games51% · 108 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
TidehunterAlberkaaa
48% · 180 games52% · 428 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixHduo
47% · 230 games51% · 357 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickImmersion
41% · 166 games48% · 125 games
SilencerRESPECT
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed26:24
Power Rangers 42%HULIGANI 58%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
46% · 291 game41% · 115 games
Weaverssnovv1
Weaver
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
52% · 530 games52% · 401 game
PuckMirage
Puck
Doom
DoomAlberkaaa
54% · 193 games57% · 325 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonImmersion
52% · 497 games50% · 222 games
Phoenixsayuw
Phoenix
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHduo
50% · 75 games45% · 523 games
TuskRESPECT
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed34:15
Power Rangers 42%HULIGANI 58%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
52% · 211 games52% · 435 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
49% · 532 games48% · 55 games
Alchemistssnovv1
Alchemist
Doom
DoomAlberkaaa
52% · 204 games46% · 352 games
PangolierCorrupted
Pangolier
Io
IoImmersion
50% · 61 game47% · 200 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
49% · 332 games56% · 298 games
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 63%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3