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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
74%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fly · 16 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
73%

Felt

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Mirana
solji · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 10 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
89%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
698 picks · 597 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 492 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
459 picks · 1114 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 821 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 1044 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 837 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
384 picks · 550 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 209 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:13
Shopify Rebellion 81%Felt 19%
The model gave 81% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 18:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerArteezy
52% · 118 games48% · 82 games
MagnusBerna
Magnus
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
51% · 30 games54% · 213 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
44% · 315 games51% · 163 games
Enchantresssolji
Enchantress
Lich
LichFly
50% · 99 games50% · 140 games
Silenceralbinozebra
Silencer
Clinkz
ClinkzCr1t-
49% · 36 games
Game 2prediction correct70:25
Shopify Rebellion 82%Felt 18%
The model gave 82% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomSabeRLight-
49% · 73 games54% · 77 games
Dark SeerFayde
Dark Seer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
60% · 53 games44% · 75 games
WindrangerBerna
Windranger
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderArteezy
36% · 6 games51% · 45 games
Vengeful Spiritalbinozebra
Vengeful Spirit
Mirana
MiranaCr1t-
54% · 69 games39% · 85 games
Spirit Breakersolji
Spirit Breaker
Batrider
BatriderFly
55% · 81 game
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 94%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2