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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 32 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 16 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 16 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
bzm · 14 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 13 games
54%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 45 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 35 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 28 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 27 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 26 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 24 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
698 picks · 597 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
561 picks · 492 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
457 picks · 1111 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 815 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 1042 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 836 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 209 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
381 picks · 547 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 69%
Hero pool strength59% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total85% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
OG 28%Gaimin Gladiators 72%
The model gave 72% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYuragi
58% · 133 games38% · 117 games
Magnusdyrachyo
Magnus
Abaddon
AbaddonDM
35% · 59 games52% · 329 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Tiny
Tinybzm
53% · 509 games42% · 142 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderTaiga
57% · 191 game44% · 233 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesChuvash
57% · 178 games58% · 249 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct11:29
OG 27%Gaimin Gladiators 73%
The model gave 73% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
49% · 152 games54% · 81 game
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Bloodseeker
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
45% · 85 games41% · 107 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
52% · 144 games41% · 76 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Techies
TechiesChuvash
53% · 138 games52% · 186 games
BatriderSeleri
Batrider
Oracle
OracleTaiga
55% · 65 games56% · 134 games
Skywrath MagetOfu
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 85%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2