Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs predictionCcomebackloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
comeback
No games played over 6 months.
Level UP
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Daxak · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
OwnedMe · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
Mirana
MiLAN · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Daxak · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
OwnedMe · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
swedenstrong · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
696 picks · 597 bans
Disruptor
559 picks · 492 bans
Beastmaster
458 picks · 1104 bans
Doom
448 picks · 810 bans
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 1038 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 834 bans
Enchantress
382 picks · 547 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 80%
Hero pool strength59% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:31
comeback 15%Level UP 85%
The model gave 85% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 48:01.
Game 2prediction correct7:22
comeback 15%Level UP 85%
The model gave 85% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 27:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 85%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2