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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 0:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Triseumwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 17 games
76%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Speeed · 11 games
45%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 9 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 9 games
89%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%

Triseum

Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Ark · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ark · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Ark · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ark · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ark · 1 game
100%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Ark · 1 game
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ark · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
697 picks · 598 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
557 picks · 490 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
454 picks · 1101 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
447 picks · 800 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 1038 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 835 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
382 picks · 207 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
380 picks · 545 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:28
Team DogChamp 69%Triseum 31%
The model gave 69% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Triseum in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingdnm
60% · 71 game30% · 72 games
WindrangerArk
Windranger
Puck
Puckred2
65% · 56 games47% · 234 games
UndyingAoharide
Undying
Magnus
MagnusSpeeed
56% · 52 games
Techies
TechiesMoOz
66% · 52 games
Silencer
SilencerBloody Nine
54% · 75 games
Game 2prediction missed9:42
Team DogChamp 67%Triseum 33%
The model gave 67% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Triseum in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusadnm
56% · 10 games48% · 28 games
ClinkzArk
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSpeeed
53% · 26 games48% · 51 game
Shadow DemonAoharide
Shadow Demon
Tusk
Tuskred2
45% · 18 games
Pugna
PugnaMoOz
43% · 3 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBloody Nine
58% · 22 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 76%
Series resultTriseum 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2