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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 48 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 20 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 27 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 25 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 23 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 20 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 14 games
71%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Cloud · 12 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lefitan · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
694 picks · 600 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
557 picks · 490 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
452 picks · 1100 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
447 picks · 795 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1036 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 833 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
382 picks · 207 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
379 picks · 545 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:23
Team Spirit 73%Hydra 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
55% · 60 games58% · 76 games
MedusaKami
Medusa
Batrider
BatriderLarl
54% · 220 games45% · 215 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCollapse
48% · 115 games41% · 72 games
TidehunterCloud
Tidehunter
Lich
LichMiposhka
43% · 74 games54% · 114 games
TechiesLil
Techies
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
48% · 156 games50% · 148 games
EnchantressHappyDyurara
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed9:23
Team Spirit 71%Hydra 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
46% · 266 games60% · 88 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
43% · 131 game48% · 212 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Visage
VisageCollapse
54% · 175 games48% · 143 games
BatriderWorick
Batrider
Chen
ChenMiposhka
59% · 123 games50% · 281 game
RubickLil
Rubick
Techies
TechiesMira
48% · 224 games47% · 195 games
Crystal MaidenHappyDyurara
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct24:8
Team Spirit 71%Hydra 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYatoro
53% · 116 games52% · 113 games
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderLarl
54% · 252 games53% · 198 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
50% · 132 games44% · 65 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Techies
TechiesMira
56% · 168 games46% · 298 games
RubickLil
Rubick
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
47% · 44 games40% · 38 games
LichHappyDyurara
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 86%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3