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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 19 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 19 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
56%

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 15 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 11 games
73%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
693 picks · 599 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 488 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
450 picks · 1097 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
444 picks · 792 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1033 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 831 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 205 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
378 picks · 545 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Team Aster
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total70% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:29
Team Aster 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
53% · 62 games48% · 79 games
AlchemistGhost
Alchemist
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerXxs
51% · 52 games50% · 86 games
PuckPaparazi
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerSumaiL
37% · 60 games49% · 80 games
MagnusJT-
Magnus
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
50% · 108 games57% · 18 games
Dark WillowKaka
Dark Willow
Oracle
OracleFantasy
53% · 29 games61% · 48 games
LichDy
Lich
Game 2prediction correct39:7
Team Aster 61%Xtreme Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMonet
53% · 116 games46% · 157 games
TerrorbladeGhost
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
48% · 164 games49% · 314 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderXxs
51% · 222 games49% · 25 games
AxeJT-
Axe
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
50% · 154 games51% · 258 games
MiranaDy
Mirana
Silencer
SilencerFantasy
49% · 233 games52% · 135 games
Skywrath MageKaka
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct40:5
Team Aster 61%Xtreme Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
57% · 113 games38% · 31 game
Phantom LancerGhost
Phantom Lancer
Slark
SlarkMonet
53% · 86 games41% · 43 games
WindrangerJT-
Windranger
Mars
MarsXxs
47% · 117 games46% · 182 games
Death ProphetPaparazi
Death Prophet
Io
IoBoBoKa
54% · 65 games50% · 47 games
Spirit BreakerKaka
Spirit Breaker
Silencer
SilencerFantasy
48% · 140 games58% · 218 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 70%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3