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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Azure Rayloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 18 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 16 games
94%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 14 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
64%

Azure Ray

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
zzq · 12 games
92%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 11 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BEYOND · 9 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
天命 · 9 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
7e · 9 games
78%
Riki
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
693 picks · 599 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 488 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
449 picks · 1093 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
442 picks · 791 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1029 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 205 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
380 picks · 829 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
376 picks · 545 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:40
LGD Gaming 63%Azure Ray 37%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 57:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
61% · 82 games51% · 206 games
Terrorbladelou
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
47% · 92 games43% · 70 games
Spirit BreakerChalice
Spirit Breaker
Doom
Doomniu
50% · 252 games49% · 372 games
PangolierSomnus
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
56% · 272 games40% · 70 games
Windrangerfy
Windranger
Undying
Undyingy`
53% · 242 games48% · 222 games
Silencer天命
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct23:13
LGD Gaming 61%Azure Ray 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
57% · 95 games43% · 130 games
Morphlinglou
Morphling
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
54% · 184 games53% · 262 games
DoomChalice
Doom
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
51% · 116 games56% · 164 games
Storm SpiritSomnus
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
51% · 168 games49% · 83 games
Pugnafy
Pugna
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maideny`
41% · 224 games45% · 148 games
Silencer天命
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct34:17
LGD Gaming 59%Azure Ray 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertashiro
50% · 14 games49% · 115 games
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
54% · 259 games51% · 172 games
TimbersawSomnus
Timbersaw
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernNothingToSay
47% · 121 game60% · 123 games
VisageChalice
Visage
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
45% · 105 games51% · 254 games
Marcify
Marci
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
46% · 249 games48% · 84 games
Lich天命
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 70%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3