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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lucky Birdwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
9%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 8 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Lodine · 5 games
40%

Lucky Bird

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 6 games
17%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
17%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
blessed kid · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 4 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
693 picks · 598 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 488 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
446 picks · 1093 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
442 picks · 786 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1024 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 205 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 828 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
375 picks · 545 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct56:47
B8 Esports 47%Lucky Bird 53%
The model gave 53% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 1:16:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerStoneBank
50% · 57 games52% · 165 games
Templar Assassinblessed kid
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierDendi
47% · 156 games53% · 311 games
BeastmasterSatoshi-
Beastmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCTOMAHEH1
46% · 18 games
Snapfire
SnapfireFunn1k
43% · 183 games
Techies
TechiesLodine
50% · 62 games
Game 2prediction missed30:10
B8 Esports 49%Lucky Bird 51%
The model gave 51% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingStoneBank
52% · 94 games54% · 75 games
Shadow Fiendblessed kid
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDendi
43% · 49 games53% · 178 games
BeastmasterSatoshi-
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusFunn1k
41% · 40 games
Clinkz
ClinkzCTOMAHEH1
42% · 17 games
Techies
TechiesLodine
51% · 53 games
Game 3prediction missed12:31
B8 Esports 56%Lucky Bird 44%
The model gave 56% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkStoneBank
66% · 38 games37% · 90 games
Ursablessed kid
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDendi
56% · 28 games34% · 85 games
MagnusSatoshi-
Magnus
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
63% · 62 games
Clinkz
ClinkzCTOMAHEH1
63% · 4 games
Techies
TechiesLodine
74% · 43 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 51%
Series resultLucky Bird 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3