Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 13 games
Mirana
solji · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
Rubick
solji · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 8 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 8 games
Tiny
solji · 8 games
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 17 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 11 games
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
YamSun · 8 games
Iosignature
Husky · 8 games
Rikioften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
693 picks · 597 bans
Disruptor
554 picks · 487 bans
Beastmaster
445 picks · 1091 bans
Doom
441 picks · 783 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1020 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 826 bans
Enchantress
375 picks · 544 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Felt
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total77% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
Felt 36%nouns 64%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerBerna
MorphlingYamSun
EnigmaFayde
Void SpiritGunnar
Miranasolji
Primal BeastMoo
Spirit Breakeralbinozebra
Keeper of the LightLelis
50% · 192 games
UndyingHusky
Game 2prediction correct10:31
Felt 36%nouns 64%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenBerna
MorphlingYamSun
BatriderFayde
OmniknightGunnar
Windrangersolji
Ogre MagiMoo
Spirit Breakeralbinozebra
Keeper of the LightLelis
57% · 109 games
DisruptorHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 77%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2