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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 27 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 24 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 22 games
68%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 20 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 14 games
71%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Cloud · 12 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lefitan · 12 games
58%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Shergarat · 13 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
58%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 10 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
56%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Shergarat · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
692 picks · 596 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
553 picks · 487 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
442 picks · 1088 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
441 picks · 777 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1016 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 822 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
372 picks · 544 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:12
Hydra 58%UALEIKUMNIHAO 42%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 22:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
49% · 222 games52% · 138 games
BloodseekerPalantimos
Bloodseeker
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKami
56% · 96 games44% · 435 games
Death ProphetShergarat
Death Prophet
Batrider
BatriderWorick
60% · 153 games46% · 129 games
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickLil
46% · 409 games53% · 176 games
TechiesMary_y
Techies
Pugna
PugnaHappyDyurara
39% · 66 games57% · 68 games
Bounty Hunterb1kA
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct26:11
Hydra 56%UALEIKUMNIHAO 44%
The model gave 56% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKami
45% · 45 games57% · 80 games
UrsaPalantimos
Ursa
Puck
PuckWorick
50% · 137 games49% · 90 games
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Magnus
MagnusCloud
42% · 71 game55% · 29 games
VenomancerShergarat
Venomancer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLil
50% · 39 games50% · 50 games
Earth Spiritb1kA
Earth Spirit
Pugna
PugnaHappyDyurara
47% · 41 game55% · 84 games
TechiesMary_y
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 65%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2