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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 48 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 20 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 17 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
77%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
so bad · 13 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
42%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
691 picks · 596 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 487 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
441 picks · 773 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
440 picks · 1086 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 1014 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 817 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
372 picks · 544 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 73%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:42
Team Spirit 67%Nemiga Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
54% · 165 games51% · 165 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
48% · 303 games52% · 354 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderCollapse
53% · 225 games47% · 88 games
MagnusCorrupted
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
50% · 51 game46% · 58 games
Spirit Breakerso bad
Spirit Breaker
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
43% · 49 games53% · 128 games
Skywrath MageHellscream
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct25:16
Team Spirit 66%Nemiga Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
50% · 71 game54% · 86 games
Void Spiritv1olent-
Void Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCollapse
45% · 91 game47% · 74 games
MagnusCorrupted
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderLarl
59% · 199 games48% · 100 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Phoenix
PhoenixMira
47% · 129 games48% · 343 games
RubickHellscream
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
47% · 209 games53% · 96 games
Techiesso bad
Techies
Game 3prediction correct24:23
Team Spirit 67%Nemiga Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
53% · 73 games53% · 113 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
55% · 162 games41% · 33 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
43% · 76 games47% · 41 game
Dark SeerCorrupted
Dark Seer
Techies
TechiesMira
51% · 99 games50% · 130 games
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
48% · 66 games53% · 159 games
Disruptorso bad
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3