Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Azure Ray
Treant Protectorsignature
zzq · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 10 games
Rubicksignature
天命 · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
BEYOND · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
zzq · 9 games
Hoodwinksignature
天命 · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
7e · 9 games
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
690 picks · 596 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 487 bans
Doom
441 picks · 772 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1085 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 1012 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 817 bans
Enchantress
372 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 57%
Hero pool strength64% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:16
Invictus Gaming 43%Azure Ray 57%
The model gave 57% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 40:16.
Game 2prediction correct30:15
Invictus Gaming 43%Azure Ray 57%
The model gave 57% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 57%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2