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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 17 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 16 games
94%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
64%

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
20%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 4 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 596 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 487 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
437 picks · 1082 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
437 picks · 770 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 1011 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
378 picks · 201 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 816 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
371 picks · 541 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
LGD Gaming 74%Team Bright 26%
The model gave 74% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 47:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
59% · 40 games45% · 49 games
Spirit BreakerIrving
Spirit Breaker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
52% · 76 games48% · 106 games
Winter Wyvernphoenix
Winter Wyvern
Doom
Doomniu
56% · 102 games48% · 151 game
UndyingUndyne_
Undying
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiy`
46% · 15 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
47% · 73 games
Game 2prediction correct20:8
LGD Gaming 75%Team Bright 25%
The model gave 75% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
69% · 45 games49% · 354 games
Pangolierphoenix
Pangolier
Doom
Doomniu
47% · 199 games51% · 91 game
Centaur WarrunnerIrving
Centaur Warrunner
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
56% · 257 games44% · 243 games
UndyingUndyne_
Undying
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
50% · 90 games
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
43% · 97 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 88%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2