Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlerswin 2:1series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 32 games
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
Tinysignature
No!ob · 16 games
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
692 picks · 594 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 487 bans
Beastmaster
436 picks · 1075 bans
Doom
432 picks · 767 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 1008 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 201 bans
Enchantress
373 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 813 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:20
D2 Hustlers 28%PSG Quest 72%
The model gave 72% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 28:17.
Game 2prediction correct24:14
D2 Hustlers 28%PSG Quest 72%
The model gave 72% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 39:05.
Game 3prediction correct11:33
D2 Hustlers 28%PSG Quest 72%
The model gave 72% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 48:36.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 72%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3