Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 21 game
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
Doomsignature
zai · 18 games
Miranasignature
Boxi · 17 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 31 game
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 17 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 16 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 15 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 14 games
Tiny
bzm · 14 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
695 picks · 597 bans
Disruptor
553 picks · 488 bans
Beastmaster
440 picks · 1079 bans
Doom
432 picks · 767 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 1013 bans
Mirana
378 picks · 202 bans
Enchantress
375 picks · 540 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 817 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 42%
Hero pool strength62% Team Liquid
Head-to-head8 – 3
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
Team Liquid 70%OG 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekermiCKe
UrsaYuragi
Ember SpiritNisha
Void Spiritbzm
Magnuszai
UndyingDM
TechiesBoxi
RubickChuvash
LichiNSaNiA
Keeper of the LightTaiga
Game 2prediction correct39:23
Team Liquid 70%OG 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkmiCKe
Monkey KingYuragi
Void SpiritNisha
EnigmaDM
Winter Wyvernzai
Earth Spiritbzm
DoomBoxi
MiranaTaiga
OracleiNSaNiA
LichChuvash
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2